Eric, I must disagree with your assessment of enterprise IT and its effects on the bottom line. The situation is not that dark.

There is still quite a few companies, where communication is still done through EDI over expensive VANs over dedicated satellite links. There are still many applications that can't be provided to large numbers of users (and thus use to generate more revenues) because they have not web interfaces. CRM, though widely ridiculed in the press and apparently behind the hype, is still a big industry. Actually, the size of the market for CRM according to some analysts I have heard recently is slightly bigger than of the one for identity management. e-Procurement is also live and kicking. Companies ARE still buying and building these systems, and surprisingly they are more succesful than those that tried to implement them in the first, overhyped, wave.

Te real difference I have experienced is that each and every IT project nowadays must have solid business case to go further. There is very little space for experimenting with large scale bleeding-edge technology. The less tailor made code-level integration and customisation the better. Etc, etc. The situation is not pleasant, but not deadly.

the best part, jiri, is that now we're both public....so we can check back in 6 months and see how my predictions are doing....

tks
ejn

The downside is that in 6 months you will probably be still arguing based on shreds of evidence you get from your anonymous contacts and I will be still arguing based on shreds of evidence I encounter at work, details of which cannot be published in both cases.

The only way to do it in a public manner is to look for the pieces of IT market intelligence (covering different segments - i.e. CRM, ERP, EAI, Identity Management...) produced by Gartner, IDC et al. that are published in trade mags.

Otherwise it will always be "if you knew what I know" type of communication.

Eric,

I agree with your enthusiasm for Digital Identity and generally like your crystal ball. But could you be more specific on why you see ID Mngmt enjoying growth vs cold winter, and being a clear winner to enable IT to become a profit center ?

Is it because of cost savings due to supporting all the existing multiple IDs ? Is it a new product offering ? But then why would this benefit IT vs the business overall ?

In general, what do you see as the killer apps / reasons that ID Mnmgt solutions drive revenue ?

Louie-

I think that ID mgmt begins to be a "profit center" by first bringing IT back to not being a "cost center" (ie, just a baseline of zero). It does this because it eases so many problems with system maintenance and administration.

As that pressure lessens, I think the ID mgmt solutions spread to supply chains, partnerships, etc -- and that is where it begins to be a profit center (although as long as we're in a recession that "profit" is realized as cost savings). CFOs everywhere will be stunned as IT begins saving them money (IT and privacy and security).

Jiri-

actually, i'm not arguing based on "anonymous contacts" at all.....everything i would allege is public --at the Digital ID World conferece -- where you'll hear the speakers say things that string together my argument.

and truly, the best "public" measurement of this disagreement will be the stock market and the subsequent turn in economic data....all of which comes from goverment sources, which (oddly) I trust much more than IDC or Gartner...

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