First day of the Gilder/Forbes Telecosm and I fell like I was put in a time warp and sent back 20 years. While standing in the hall with Phillipe Kahn and Paul Allen trying to convince each other we know what's happening (all the while trying not to look like we're listening to see what the other guy knows that we don't) it dawned on me that the only real difference from 20 years ago is we're all a little calmer about it (at least outwardly.)
This is a group of real optimists, who are sure that the next big thing is here somewhere and they want to find it before everyone else does. The audience seems to be a combination of VCs looking to see how to recoup their losses (the grumpy ones), companies trying to show they have the next new thing (the optimistic energetic ones) with a few pundits (trying to figure out what's going on) thrown in. Including the obligatory ex-journalist working the halls selling his new book. Just like old times...
The lunch speaker (Worldcom) was a bit sobering to the audience. Got to admire that he showed up, but everyone left saying some version of "that was rough" working to get rid of the gray cloud that has no place here.
It took about 5 minutes to do that, as Brian Halla, CEO of National Semi put up the graph of the three major computer industry boom/bust cycles dated by their peaks ('74 mainframe/timesharing, '84 PCs, '00 connected PCs) showing how much larger each was than the one before (based on semiconductor sales numbers.) This is a subject I spend a lot (probably too much) time on, as I love the perspective it provides on whats coming next - so it was right up my alley. Brian claims to have developed a formula to pinpoint the next cycle upswing, but didn't share the details as he is planning to release it at Comdex in his keynote. But the audience was happy to know that his graph doesn't show things going down forever (I wonder if they caught the part where the new cycle will occur with new things.) I was happy to see that his projections lead to conclusions similar to my own :-)
One thing for certain, this group is definitely looking past the Telechasm and dreaming of getting to the great things that lie beyond. It reminds me why the high tech industry has been such a draw for me for over 30 years -you just can't go too long without that same wide-eyed enthusiasm you had as an 10 year old returning, and failure is seen as just the next step on the road to success.
We'll see how they react to my Digital Identity presentation in the morning...
Posted by pbecker at October 1, 2002 05:37 PMPhil, thanks for your observations from the Gilder Conference. You guys at Digital ID World have already figured the next big thing. The companies that will be involved in Digital ID, authentication, trust and security will be the winners in the next boom.
The boom will be led by a new cycle of PC upgrades based on security, as PC-Oems start implementing a bridging strategy toward Pd PC's.
Any company that is in this space, has a chance at being a winner!!
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