Digital ID World has often spoke of the "hype curve" or "hype cycle" that technologies go through -- basically charting how expectations get ahead of actual deployment capabilities. Getting out of the disappointment phase is important if the technologies are ever to reach a critical mass of deployments.
Here is a Forbes piece which is basically an "anti-hype" piece on RFID. It talks about fragmented markets, slow spending, disappointed customers - the usual stuff that accompanies the "disappointment" phase.
Will RFID recover? I think so, but it will probably take a good 18 months.
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Provisioning: in *heavy* deployment; very hot; will start seeing some customer disappointments in about 12months; outlook through the first half of 2006 - very good.
Identity Management suites: they've been hyped; they've been acquired; and they've started to get deployed; 2006 will see people begin to struggle with the monolithic deployment (much like they did with CRM and ERP); watch for the "think tactical, deploy in pieces" stories to emerge.
Enterprise SSO: about as steady as they get; E-SSO is one of those technologies that actually does what it says it will do; perceptions don't get out of line here much.
Federation: Look for 2006 to be the year of hype cycle; it began this year; Burton is now talking about how its everywhere; the "press" will pick it up in the next 12months and it will seem like *everyone* is federating. I'd bet this curve can last 24months from the start of 2006 (with the accompanying bumps and dips, of course).
Virtual Directories: I'm not sure that this technology gets a "hype cycle" - it may just get integrated/acquired into the stack.
End-user identity (Infocards, etc): just starting; the usual dose of skepticism accompanies this move; we're still 12mos out from really beginning this hype curve in earnest, but it could be accelerated according to Microsoft's product release cycles.
Identity appliances: not on the hype curve yet - but they will be, and I'll bet they rise up it quickly; security architects like buying little black boxes - its a jungian thing or something.
Identity Software as a Service: barely even on the map (save the efforts of Covisint); Jamie Lewis told me he thought Identity Management as a Service would be a hard sell; I disagree -- in 24-36months, that is.
Strong Authentication: Not hyping yet, but growing very fast; 12 months from now we'll have large scale, end-user facing deployments and the hype will kick in; and then someone will screw up really badly and we'll get the backlash.
Phishing/ID Fraud/ID Theft solutions: as far out onto the long tail as the hype curve goes.
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